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Latest highlights (October 2009):
Gold, in mid-October reached another record in dollar terms,
fixing at a high of $1,066 on the morning of the 14th - precisely,
as the Chairman of the Fix pointed out, on the 943rd anniversary
of the Battle of Hastings. This latest price action has had something
of a self-fulfilling air about it as there has been an increasing
degree of speculative participation in the move, with a rising number
of references in the market to technical, computer-generated buying
orders. The rise appears to be running out of momentum in the middle
of the month and the comparatively fragile state of the fundamental
background to the market means that a downward correction should
develop. The dollar has been a key driver recently and the price
is therefore not at universal record levels (see the discussion
on the following pages). There has been some light physical selling
into the market, but nothing like the rate of scrap return that
developed in the first quarter of this year. The imminence of Diwali,
which is the highlight of the Festival seasons in the Hindu calendar,
has seen an improvement in the physical demand for gold from individual
purchasers, but the underlying state of the jewellery industry is
still patchy at best. On the other side of the market, central bank
selling remains constrained. There have however, been regular bouts
of investment buying (especially in the Far East) when prices have
dipped - although local dealers are suggesting that for this to
reappear the price is likely to have to come down towards $1,000.
Diwali has also been giving a boost to silver purchases in India
while the international silver market has enjoyed some lively buying,
driven largely by funds, notably in North America.
Silver, often regarded as “poor man’s gold”
has once again outperformed the latter metal although it is now
starting to run into buying resistance on the approach to $18 and
the market is also reporting hints of physical sales into this price
strength.
Platinum and palladium, after pausing for breath in late
September and early October, picked up substantial momentum again
in the second week of October, with palladium scooting up towards
$340, the highest level since early August 2008. Platinum has been
slightly more decorous in its gains and is trending steadily higher,
reaching a recent an intraday high of $1,365, also the highest since
early September 2008. The markets have been concentrating on economic
figures as well as benefiting from dollar weakness, with mixed results.
While the recent push higher has certainly been helped by the weakness
in the dollar, local prices have also risen in anticipation of a
reasonably broad economic recovery.
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